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How to use Elo ratings for football predictions
A practical guide to using Elo ratings in football predictions, from team strength and home advantage to draw probability, league adjustments, and model improvement.
The impact of VAR on penalties and match outcomes
Learn how VAR affects penalties, match outcomes, football predictions, and betting models by changing decision accuracy, game state, scoring probability, and late-match volatility.
How odds move and what AI can learn from bookmakers
Learn why football odds move, what drives bookmaker price changes from opening to closing lines, and how AI models can use odds and line movement without leakage.
If Alonso is not good enough for Real, then who is?
Philipp Lahm has come to the defense of his former teammate Xabi Alonso. The Basque was dismissed earlier this year by Real Madrid, and Lahm sees the coaching job at Los Blancos as the ultimate challenge in world football.
Expected goals explained and how AI uses xG to predict results
Understand expected goals (xG) from first principles and see how AI uses xG, shot quality, and team context to predict football results with stronger accuracy and calibration.
Liverpool confirm Alexander Isak suffers broken leg and undergoes surgery
Ankle surgery for Alexander Isak will keep the Liverpool striker out for an undefined period after he suffered a fibula fracture in the win at Tottenham.